The economy slows… but stocks soar

What if I told you the economy is slowing… yet investors are cheering?

Sounds backward, right? But it is happening in plain sight.

Look around. Fewer “Help Wanted” signs. Quiet shifts at your favorite restaurant. Friends delaying big purchases.

You’re not imagining it. The data says the slowdown is real:

• 73,000 jobs added in July (well below expectations)1
• 258,000 jobs erased from prior months after revisions1
• 4.2% unemployment, the highest in two years1
• 1.97 million continuing jobless claims, the most since late 20212
• Weak factory data pointing to manufacturing cutbacks3

And yet, the S&P 500 keeps breaking records. It’s already up more than 8% year-to-date.

So what is going on? Let’s break it down into three big reasons that are possibly driving the market right now.

1) Lower rates are on the table

Thanks to the recent swath of weak numbers, investors are speculating that the Federal Reserve could start slashing interest rates later this year.4

Think of the Fed as the country’s financial thermostat. If the economy is cooling too much, it turns up the heat.

Lower rates make it cheaper for companies to borrow and invest. They also make bonds less appealing, which pushes more money toward stocks.

Imagine a seesaw. On one side: stocks. On the other: bonds. Lower rates tip the balance toward stocks.

That is why bad economic news can sometimes push markets higher. Investors are betting the Fed will step in.

2) A few giants carry the market

The “Magnificent 7” — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla — have powered much of this year’s rally.

In the second quarter, analysts project these companies will see their earnings jump 14.1% year-over-year. The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500, by comparison, expect to report earnings growth of 3.4%.5

Because the Magnificent 7 make up such a large share of the index, their wins can lift the market even if many companies are struggling.

This concentration means a diversified portfolio might not mirror headline market moves, and that's actually a good thing. It shows you’re not betting everything on a handful of tech giants.

3) Money is still flowing in

Years of stimulus and government spending have left plenty of cash in the system. That money has to go somewhere.

Investor sentiment matters, too.

Over the past decade, many have been conditioned to buy the dip because markets have often bounced back quickly. Combine that with the ease of app-based trading, and rallies can feed on themselves.

Think of it like a campfire. The wood is already stacked. It only takes a small spark for the flames to rise.

The bottom line

These three forces, rate cut expectations, a handful of dominant companies, and strong investor sentiment, can push markets higher even when the economy might be slowing. All of them are tied to expectations and human behavior, not just today’s numbers.

That is why chasing headlines is risky.

It is also why emotional decisions can derail a well-built plan.

My role is to help you interpret the headlines, not react to them. To show how market moves reflect both economics and psychology. And to help you make choices that align with your long-term goals and values.

Markets will always swing. Your plan should help keep you steady.

If you are wondering how this environment fits with your strategy, let’s talk. We can review your allocation and make sure it is built for your future, not the market’s current mood.

Don't hesitate to book a quick call. I am here to help.

Sources:

BLS, 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Department of Labor, 2025 [URL: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf]

ISM, 2025 https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/july/

Reuters, 2025 https://www.reuters.com/business/jpmorgan-brings-forward-fed-rate-cut-forecast-september-2025-08-08/

FactSet Insights, 2025 https://insight.factset.com/are-magnificent-7-companies-still-top-contributors-to-earnings-growth-for-the-sp-500-for-q2#:~:text=In aggregate%2C the “Magnificent 7,be 3.4%25 for Q2 2025. https://www.notion.so/freedom-snappykraken-com-2482db71d83581c5a17ccd83b7e25bdc?pvs=21

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.